Re-thinking "The Slide"

I’ve taken some time to consider sharing my thoughts on a topic that has been circulating lately. I understand that my words might be interpreted in various ways, and I truly appreciate the passion that many have for God’s Family. My intention is to foster understanding rather than to engage in disputes that often lead to more questions than answers (2 Timothy 2:23). I love the Family of God with a deep passion. I pray my history of dealing with fellow Christians is evidence of that.

The slide that has garnered attention reflects our members' genuine concern for the church's growth and well-being. It’s clear that many of us want to see the Kingdom thrive, and when faced with alarming statistics, it’s natural to feel a sense of urgency.

Understanding the Data

The numbers we often see stem from efforts initiated by Batsell Barrett Baxter, continued by Mac Lynn, and further developed by 21st Century Christian and Carl R. I hold Carl in high regard and recognize that he is doing his best to provide insights. However, it’s important to remember that, as a non-denominational group, we lack an official reporting agency. This means that the data can be quite variable due to factors like changing addresses, church mergers, and the unfortunate passing of key individuals. Even those deeply involved in research acknowledge that gathering accurate data can be quite challenging. Frankly, trying to wrangle us up is worse than herding cats! 

For context, denominations like the Southern Baptists have structured systems that force them to report attendance and contributions weekly. Each week, they have to email a completed form, and by (I think) noon each Monday, they can tell you exactly how many attended EVERY church, what the total contributions were, and how many “confessions of faith” they had. If they don’t, they can’t get the benefits from the denomination. This level of organization is not something we have, and it’s essential to understand that we are not a denomination. In fact, we know that God intended for His people to be united rather than divided into different factions, i.e., denominations. Side note: These “stats” are nearly 20 years old, starting a generation ago in 2006!!!

Historical Context

There’s a rich history behind our current understanding of church growth. In the 1950s, Brother Baxter was approached by the federal Census of Religious Bodies to provide membership numbers for the churches of Christ. His estimates were based on the best information available at the time, but they were still approximations. He started calling key leaders in various areas and asking them what the numbers were. And from that we have good people even today who harken, probably incorrectly, that in the 50’s-60’s, we were the fastest-growing religious group in America. We may or may not have been, BUT there is ZERO statistical data to suggest such. Every time I hear that stat quoted, I cringe because I know it will be followed by criticism of what God’s good people strive to do today. Brother Baxter is, simply put, one of my heroes. I recognize the immense effort he put into his work while balancing multiple responsibilities (Teaching full-time at David Lipscomb College, preaching for a 1,000-member congregation at Hillsboro, and putting out a national television program).

A Cycle of Concern

Every couple of decades, a new wave of concern arises about the state of the church, as seen with groups like Voices of Concern in 1966 and Why Churches Grow in 1979. It’s important to remember that just because a claim is made doesn’t necessarily make it true. And while both of these works predicted the demise of the church - they just were wrong. So will those be who are predicting the church will die today. We have the Lord’s Word on it that it will not and can not (Luke 1:33; Matthew 16:16-18)! Not all of these voices are honest; some appear to be agenda-driven by those on either extreme. 

Critical Thinking About Statistics.

I deal with brotherhood statistics daily. When encountering statistics, I encourage everyone to ask important questions: 

- **Why is this statistic important?

- **What context is missing?

- **Who is presenting this data, and what might their motivations be?

For instance, when a church closes, it may not always be a negative outcome. Sometimes, it indicates a long-overdue decision for a church that had limped along for decades, or it could represent two congregations finally reuniting after a split. In many small towns, the number of congregations may exceed the community's needs, leading to a situation where unity is more beneficial. We’d all surely agree that if in a town of 2-3,000 people, there are two churches that have a sign out front that says “Church of Christ,” and the town knows one started because the folks in the other building couldn’t get along and both claim that is “one body,” “one church,” they all recognize the irony or stupidity of this. I’d encourage in my state of Alabama to go from 900 congregations to 5 to 600 if it means brethren are again working toward unity. 

The Bigger Picture

It’s also worth noting that some individuals may use statistics to promote specific agendas, such as advocating for changes in worship practices or leadership in worship. You must ask, What is in it for the person supplying the stat? One of the loudest voices in this is part of a large effort to change the church into a denomination. He and his associates are pushing churches to bring instrumental music into the worship services and pushing women as leaders in worship. It certainly appears their agenda is to convince some that the only way to grow again is to “change with the times” or that we will “lose our young people if we do not go this way,” then some will listen. I’d advise you to ask them how many of these Frankenstein churches they are creating are growing - what are the actual numbers of those who have made the change? Our studies seem to show that almost every one of them has accelerated in their decline. I’ve often wondered why. Perhaps it is because, belying what they say, they hate the doctrine of the church. They want to “fit in” in polite society or academic circles and will stop short of nothing to do so.

It is true that often, what you see becomes your reality. We overlay our personal experience on top of everything else. If your congregation is struggling and shrinking, believing the church is everywhere becomes easy. But are the 25-50 congregations you have actually been at a fair sampling of the 50-60K congregations worldwide? I visit with 100’s of congregations a year, and my experience is churches are growing, getting younger, and full of optimism, hope, energy, and life!

We are seeing that almost every program on the extreme left is struggling, and almost every more moderate program is growing, some dramatically. So, most of the loud voices from the left are actually experiencing decline, and when they share this slide with their folks, it is easy to believe (especially if there is an agenda in mind when it is shared). 

Ultimately, only God knows the actual number of His people. There are various practical and personal reasons why we may not have an accurate count of all congregations and members.

Positive Developments

Despite the challenges, there are encouraging trends to consider:

- Some congregations that needed to close have done so, allowing for healthier congregational dynamics.

- We are witnessing positive mergers and reunifications among congregations, which makes us stronger and probably needs to happen much more.

• New church plants may take time to report their numbers.

• Further I’d remind us that the number of congregations does not always reflect the number of active Christians.

A Global Perspective

It’s essential to remember that while we may perceive struggles within our local congregations in the states. The church is experiencing significant growth globally. Our immediate surroundings can sometimes limit our perspective, but the broader picture reveals a vibrant and expanding Body.

In conclusion, while the slide in question may raise valid points, I encourage everyone to consider the context before sharing or acting upon it. Let’s engage in constructive conversations that promote unity and understanding, focusing on our mission to fulfill the teachings of our Lord.

Thank you for taking the time to reflect on these thoughts. Together, we can navigate these challenges with grace and compassion.